| Line | Per order | Over horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Average order value | — | — |
| COGS (landed) | — | — |
| Shipping (net of customer-paid) | — | — |
| Payment fees | — | — |
| Packaging | — | — |
| Returns reserve | — | — |
| Gross profit | — | — |
| Ad spend (CAC) | — | — |
| Contribution margin | — | — |
| Sell-through | Units sold | Revenue | Net profit | ROI | Unsold $ |
|---|
Current scenario highlighted in gold. Sell-through under 40% typically means either product-market fit is off, or your horizon is too tight — extend months or rethink the mix.
Blended per-order math assumes: 60% of revenue from bundles (Evening/Complete Ritual) and 40% from single/2-item orders. Payment fees 3.9% + $0.30 (Stripe HK international). Packaging $0.75/order. Returns reserve 1.5% of revenue. Customer pays shipping on single-item orders (partial recovery), free over tiered thresholds on bundles. Drop-off surcharge waived (5+ parcels/day batching). Shipping cost eaten is net, already backed out.
Ad efficiency >1× means better performance per dollar (e.g. subscription retention lowering blended CAC). Bulk discount applies to COGS only — typical real-world ladder: 0% at <$5k orders, 5-10% at $5-25k, 15-22% at $25-100k, 25%+ at $100k+.